Three federal jobs reports land this week. Here is what to watch for healthcare hiring
August showed health care hiring cooling. JOLTS, metro employment, and the September jobs report will show whether that slowdown is sticking.
If you hire nurses, pharmacists, therapists, or techs, this is a busy week for data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes three reports between Tuesday and Friday that together show how fast health care employers are adding staff, how many jobs are sitting open, and whether workers are quitting.
The August baseline: health care cooled
The latest jobs report, for August, showed total payrolls up 162,000 and the unemployment rate at 4.1%. Health care added 13,000 jobs. That is a real gain, but it is well below the sector's average of about 32,000 a month over the prior year.
Inside health care, home health care services added about 11,000 jobs and hospitals about 8,000. Average hourly earnings across private payrolls reached $37.75, up 3.1% from a year earlier.
For a sector that has carried a large share of U.S. job growth, a month at less than half its usual pace is worth watching. One month does not make a trend, which is why this week matters.
What comes out, and when
Tuesday, Sept. 29, 10:00 a.m. ET: JOLTS for August. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey counts open positions, hires, quits, and layoffs. For hiring managers, the two most useful lines are openings (how much competition there is for the same candidates) and quits (how willing workers are to leave for something better). A high quit rate usually means more poaching risk and more pressure on pay.
Wednesday, Sept. 30: metro area employment for August. This release breaks employment down by metropolitan area, so you can see whether your local market is running hotter or cooler than the national picture.
Friday, Oct. 2, 8:30 a.m. ET: the September jobs report. This will show whether health care's August slowdown continued or bounced back, and whether the hospital and home health gains held up.
How to read the numbers
A few simple habits make these reports more useful:
- Compare health care to its own recent average, not to the overall economy. The sector's trend line is what tells you whether competition for staff is easing.
- Look at the sub-sectors that match your openings. Hospitals, home health, nursing facilities, and physician offices do not always move together.
- Treat first estimates as provisional. BLS revises the prior two months in each jobs report, so a weak month can be revised up or down.
What this means for your hiring
If the September report confirms a slower pace, some employers may pause or slow their hiring, which can loosen competition for experienced staff in certain roles. That is an opening to fill hard roles you have been putting off. If health care snaps back toward its usual pace, expect competition for the same candidates to stay tight, and budget accordingly.
Either way, national numbers only go so far. Supply and pay in your own commuting area decide how long a role stays open. Pull the metro release on Wednesday and compare it with what you are seeing in your applicant flow.
We will cover the results here once the reports are out. If you want a quick read on one specific opening, you can run a free Hire-Difficulty Check.
Sources
Curious how hard your own opening will be to fill? Run the free Hire-Difficulty Check, and our sample reports show what you get.